Vietnam: Predictions for 2012; Economy, Politics, Tourism, Environment

To make this more fun, I’ll try to refrain from maybes and probabilities and stick to straight predictions.

Economy

• 2012 will bring mild recession to Vietnam due to both internal and external economic factors.
• The official government numbers will be substantially low, but will not quite reflect a recession.
• The real estate, finance and export sectors will all take substantial hits. Property markets will reach a crisis point in key developing areas such as Saigon, Nha Trang and Hanoi.
• In a move to avert impending failure of several government banks, Vietnam will consolidate them and tighten banking regulations.
• Vietnam will continue to consolidate numerous failing state companies.
• In an effort to prevent a rush on the gold market, the government will increasingly restrict trade in gold.
• New foreign investment will continue but at a much lower rate than 2010 and 2011. New foreign brands will move into Vietnam, particularly in fast food, but performance will be anaemic. 
• Vietnam will increase restrictions (and enforcement) for expats living and working in Vietnam.
• Political and Economic challenges will result in a new series of policies, popularly referred to as ‘Doi Moi 2.0,’ in reference to ground-breaking government reforms more than 20 years ago. These reforms will merely kick the can a few years further down the line.

Speech and the Internet

• Vietnam’s on-again, off-again censorship of Facebook will continue in its current state.
• Twitter will be intermittently censored.
• Vietnam will continue to arrest and imprison Vietnamese bloggers and social media users.
• Vietnam will detain several foreign journalists and expat bloggers. Some journalists will be deported.

South China Sea and Regional Politics

• World events, including continued unrest in the middle east, nation-threatening instability in Egypt, Syria and Iraq, as well as uncertainty and tension in North Korea, will present a distraction which serves as an opportunity for China to strengthen its position in territorial disputes. This will include but not be limited to the South China Sea. China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Philippines and the USA will all increase military presence in the region. The US and Vietnam will continue to strengthen ties in an effort to contain China. Several US Senators and Hillary Clinton will make new visits to Vietnam. If tension with China deepens, President Obama will also visit Hanoi in person.

Tourism

• The tourism industry will continue to grow but at only a slight rate. Tourism in the Central Highlands, northern Vietnam (outside Hanoi) and the Mekong will actually decline slightly. Tourism in Hanoi and HCMC will remain at current levels. Tourism in coastal areas will increase moderately.
• Due to financial considerations, I predict Vietnam will be forced to decline the Natural 7 Wonders title for Ha Long Bay. However, if Vietnam does decide to pay the expenses allegedly associated with accepting the award, it will eliminate the VNAT’s 2012 budget for most activities, including advertising and tourism festivals. Either outcome will have relatively no effect on tourism levels. Ha Long Bay will continue to be a major attraction but fraught with safety issues.
• Bobby Chinn’s restaurant will become a key tourist attraction for HCMC, thanks to his new TV show that features it. The restaurant will attract other celebrity visitors to the city.
• Branjelina will be back, with kids in tow. However, their travel plans will be more secretive.
• Development of the Long Wall of Quang Ngai as a tourist attraction will slowly continue.
• Vietnam will feature in a number of Cable TV programs about travel and nature. Most will reflect well on Vietnam, but a few will not be as positive.

Mui Ne

• 2012 will be a year of transition in Mui Ne. The beach will begin to take on more of an impersonal party-town feel, characteristic of a Thailand tourist destination.
• As old property leases and work contracts expire, many of the early expats in Mui Ne will leave.
• The tourism industry will grow in 2012 but at more moderate levels than 2011. Russians will continue to dominate.
• There will continue to be new foreign-owned and Saigon-based businesses opening.
• Crime, drugs, prostitution, fatal traffic accidents and drownings will increase. Pollution will become a more serious problem.
• Sailing will continue to develop but kiteboarding will decrease somewhat.
• Mui Ne will see its first foreign fast food or coffee chain open. Phan Thiet will see its third new foreign chain open.

Environment

• Vietnam will push forward with dams at the Cat Tien UNESCO Biosphere, despite controversy. UNESCO will fail to address the issue despite serious degradation of the park.
• Disagreements will continue between Vietnam officials and foreign NGOs over whether Javan Rhinos are really extinct in Vietnam. Vietnamese officials will put forth alleged evidence and sightings of Rhinos in remote areas. Vietnam’s war on African Rhinos will continue unabated.
• Wild Asian elephants will be pushed near extinction in Vietnam in 2012 due to poaching of ivory.
• Debate will arise over whether tigers are now officially extinct in Vietnam due to poaching.
• Vietnamese authorities will continue to make impressive seizures of trafficked wildlife but it will not deter the overall rate of wildlife trafficking.
• Vietnam’s new nuclear program with Russia and Japan will press forward but will become a popular topic when a series of minor earthquakes rattle southern Vietnam between August and November. The media will be slow to highlight more serious issues surrounding the program.
• A new bird flu epidemic will emerge in Vietnam & surrounding countries, with multiple fatalities within Vietnam. It will contain DNA from several other viruses. It will not be admitted and announced until well into the epidemic.