Last week Vietnam issued a statement that it was ‘reaffirming its sovereignty’ over the Spratly and Paracel Islands; disputed maritime territory which China largely controls. The press said that the statement was in response to new announcements made by China about plans to develop the islands.
I commented last week to friends, and online, that whenever Vietnam does this, it means there has been a secret skirmish between the two countries at sea.
A few days later, Vietnam issued a bizarre story in state-controlled press that it had concluded a friendly meeting with China and came to an agreement of mutual understanding on issues related to the South China Sea. Such meetings are always red flags.
Then today Vietnam finally announced that last week, government statements were actually in response to Vietnamese fishing vessels that were detained by the Chinese navy, who allegedly assaulted the Vietnamese fishermen on board.
It should be noted as well that Vietnamese ‘fishermen’ actually means Vietnamese naval officers in disguise. Communist agents, police and military in Vietnam seem to routinely spend as much time in plain cloths working undercover as they do in uniform. Do a Google search and you’ll find that prior to every discussion of the South China Sea (positive or negative), there is a mysterious incident of Vietnamese ‘fishermen’ lost at sea or ‘attacked by pirates’ near the islands controlled by China.
Now, what does this have to do with Iran, you ask? Lets take a step back to other event this week.
The US just announced that North Korea has agreed to suspend nuclear activities and missile tests in exchange for food aid from the US. North Korea is a key ally and supporter of Iran’s nuclear program and its likely this new arrangement with the US will curtail cooperation between North Korea and Iran.
Officials in the US this week have suddenly accused Saudi Arabia of involvement in 9/11 attacks in the US. The US government has had this information for about a decade. Why is it only now coming out? The US is exerting pressure on Saudi Arabia to back the US against Iran. If it doesn’t, I’m sure we can expect more revelations about Saudi Arabia in the coming weeks.
The US is going around the world pulling strings in order to pressure other countries to help the US government contain Iran--before a world war erupts—an event which appears to now be dangerously close to fruition. The key players remaining in the game however, other than the US, are actually China and Russia.
One can only imagine what the US and Russia are discussing—perhaps a promise of no more derogatory comments from Clinton about Putin during this period of national elections and protest.
It’s clear what the conditions laid out by China to the US are: If you (the US) want support with Iran, then let us (China) have the South China Sea.
It’s a heavy price, and its not clear that the US is willing to pay, but that hasn’t stopped China from testing the waters. Last year, after several violent incidents between China and Vietnam, the Vietnamese press announced that the US just happened to be sending war ships into the region. The US didn't always make the announcements themselves, nor confirm statements by the Vietnam government (nor was the information usually mentioned by the press outside of Vietnam). It was obvious however, that Vietnam was sending a message to China. If the US concedes to China in this most recent bout of conflict, we may see the US sit on the sidelines this time while Vietnam loses advantage at sea.
Up until now the US has sought to keep the seas open, not only as a means of transport and trade in Southeast Asia, but also because of rich maritime oil reserves in the region. The US has rapidly strengthened ties with Vietnam over the last decade, including assistance joining the WTO, frequent visits by high-level US government officials, substantial economic and relief aid, and even rumours of military agreements. All of this appears to be an attempt to ally with Vietnam in order to contain its northern neighbour.
Up until now the US has sought to keep the seas open, not only as a means of transport and trade in Southeast Asia, but also because of rich maritime oil reserves in the region. The US has rapidly strengthened ties with Vietnam over the last decade, including assistance joining the WTO, frequent visits by high-level US government officials, substantial economic and relief aid, and even rumours of military agreements. All of this appears to be an attempt to ally with Vietnam in order to contain its northern neighbour.
As I already stated in my predictions for 2012, there will be heightened tension between Vietnam, China and the US this year over the South China Sea. The question is however, whether the South China Sea, or Iran will motivate the US more in its foreign policy—and how China will respond, particularly in regard to other key players in the disputed territory, including Taiwan, Philippines and Vietnam.
Excellent summary of the events and I agree with your conclusions too. I doubt that Taiwan, The Philippines and Vietnam will have much control on the developments at the South China Sea (unfortunately). We'll see soon.
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